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The US Republican Party approaches the midterm elections with Donald Trump’s administration struggling to either win or diplomatically resolve the conflict with Iran. Experts consulted by Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories evaluate the key factors that could push the situation toward war or peace, including the US political landscape, regional dynamics in Israel, and the nuclear impasse.
US Midterm Elections and Presidential Power
A Democratic victory in the midterms would likely force Trump to shift focus toward domestic issues and highlight the financial expenses of the war in the US Congress, according to Omid Memarian of the Washington-based think tank DAWN. However, Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that Trump could maintain limited strikes on Iran without formally declaring war, while likely seeking a face-saving exit strategy following the vote. He added that dealing with a president who behaves unconventionally creates a high-stakes gamble for Tehran and elevates the risk of renewed attacks.
Babak Rezaeedaryakenari, a professor of international relations at Leiden University, noted that the US president holds broad authority in foreign policy and military operations. Rezaeedaryakenari told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that a Republican defeat would not automatically halt new attacks, even with heightened congressional pressure.
Political Uncertainty and Israel’s Leadership
Israel’s October 27 election concluded in a deadlock, leaving neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot with an outright majority. Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that this political ambiguity could prompt Netanyahu to act on major decisions immediately, creating a highly fragile transition period.
While a new Israeli government would not fundamentally shift Iran policy, Memarian suggested that Eisenkot might coordinate more closely with Washington while lacking Netanyahu’s personal rapport with Trump. Rezaeedaryakenari added that Israel’s security concerns regarding Iran extend beyond Netanyahu himself, meaning a new administration could alter the timing of a confrontation rather than prevent it entirely.
The Nuclear Impasse and Escalation Risks
The nuclear program remains the central point of contention, with Washington rejecting Tehran’s stance that the program is strictly civilian. Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that the two sides also disagree on structuring negotiations, as the US demands early concessions while Iran insists on the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets first. Until an agenda is agreed upon, Memarian warns that both sides will continue climbing the ladder of tension.
Leila Morovati, a political scientist based in Finland, told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that Iran views its nuclear program as both a survival guarantee and a primary bargaining chip, whereas Washington fears a nuclear-armed Iran would disrupt its long-term Middle East strategy.
Strait of Hormuz and Regional Allies
Before the war began in late February, approximately 20% of global oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has since reduced energy exports to use as leverage. Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that while these restrictions alone will not spark escalation, Washington could use any incident as a pretext for a broader attack if it decides to force a change in Tehran’s calculations.
Regarding the Houthi rebels in Yemen targeting Red Sea energy exports, Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that their struggle is domestic and organic despite ideological ties to Tehran, representing pragmatic calculations rather than direct Iranian control. Conversely, Rezaeedaryakenari told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that Houthi attacks could widen the war and prompt neighboring countries to build closer military coalitions to protect their trade, thereby narrowing Iran’s room for maneuver.
Regional Mediators and the Post-Election Outlook
With direct talks stalled, Qatar, Oman, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have emerged as key regional mediators. Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that these nations maintain ties with both the US and Iran to prevent future conflicts, though Morovati cautioned that a lack of US support during the war could eventually push Arab allies toward American rivals.
During his campaign, Trump expressed expectations of reaching a deal with Iran shortly after the midterms, while Iranian officials reportedly prolonged talks to weaken him politically. Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that the current period provides the best opportunity to resolve the standoff before Trump’s term ends in January 2029, warning that Tehran must consider its endgame to avoid a massive US military strike.
Rezaeedaryakenari told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that escalatory factors will likely dominate the coming months, noting that averting further conflict would require a fundamental policy shift and major concessions that Tehran views as nearly equivalent to surrender.
Economic Strain and the War of Attrition
High energy prices and shipping risks are straining all involved parties as the war enters its ninth month. Morovati told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that the economy serves as the Achilles’ heel for every participant, pointing out that energy supply issues and public expectations present significant challenges for the Trump administration.
Memarian told Deutsche Welle: DW.com – Top Stories that while economic costs provide an incentive for a settlement, each side currently believes that inflicting greater pain will strengthen its negotiating position, effectively turning the conflict into a war of attrition where neither side sees compromise as unavoidable yet.
