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Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to flatline or drop slightly in 2026, as soaring oil and gas prices caused by the war in Iran encourage a shift toward renewable energy. Researchers presenting their findings at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya warn, however, that talking of a permanent global turnaround is premature.
Carbon Assessment and Renewable Growth
Data from the year so far indicates that CO2 emissions from oil, gas, and coal will flatline, while emissions from burning oil alone are expected to drop by 2% as drivers economize and switch to electric vehicles. Published in Nature Climate Change, the assessment highlights that the reduction in fossil fuel emissions for 2026 will be approximately 0.4% compared with the previous year.
According to the Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment by scientists from numerous universities and institutions published in Earth System Science Data, total global emissions from fossil fuels will reach about 38.2bn tonnes this year. Although global energy demand continues to rise as more people gain access to electricity, two-thirds of this increased demand is met by solar and wind generation alongside electric vehicle adoption.
Deforestation and Remaining Carbon Budget
Despite the slight easing in fossil fuel emissions, the positive trend was more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land use change following major fires in south-east Asia and the conversion of wild land to agriculture. Total carbon emissions are forecast to rise slightly from 42.8bn tonnes last year to 43.3bn tonnes in 2026.
Scientists warned that the remaining carbon budget—the amount of carbon that can be emitted before global heating likely exceeds 1.5C permanently above pre-industrial levels—stands at roughly 150bn tonnes, leaving less than four years at current emission rates. Temperatures have already exceeded the 1.5C threshold for more than two years, compounded by El Niño conditions.
Regional Impacts and Expert Reactions
China, the world’s largest emitter, is projected to reduce its carbon output by close to 1% this year due to a 5% drop in oil use following the Iran war. India’s emissions grew due to increased coal use, whereas US emissions are expected to fall by about 1.3% from reduced coal consumption, despite the fossil-fuel policies of US President Donald Trump.
Glen Peters from the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research noted that structural changes are required for a true peak, stating that accelerated solar, wind, and battery deployment are slowing emissions growth in many countries without locking in a global peak. Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, described the projected 0.4% fall as statistically indistinguishable from zero, adding that the world is heading toward a sustained breach of 1.5C by around 2030.
More than 90 heads of state and government, alongside representatives from over 190 countries, are gathering at Cop31 in Turkey to discuss the ongoing climate crisis.
