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Senators elected this November must answer a crucial question before their six-year term ends: What will they do to fix Social Security? The program’s trustees project that the trust fund Social Security relies on to help pay retirement benefits may be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, which could lead to automatic benefit cuts of 22% without congressional action.
Voter Priorities and Campaign Platforms
According to a survey by the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 81% of voters in competitive Senate states are more likely to support a candidate with a plan to avoid automatic cuts over one who promises not to touch the program. Despite this, many Senate candidates’ campaign platforms lack specifics on plans for the program’s future. Out of 35 Senate seats up for grabs, CNBC identified nine closely contested battleground races where candidates have mentioned their plans, with outcomes rated by MS NOW.
Alaska and Iowa Contests
In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola are competing in a race rated as a toss-up by MS NOW. Sullivan voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the Social Security Fairness Act, and stated during an October debate that reforms must be bipartisan. Peltola’s platform calls for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, and she co-sponsored the Social Security Fairness Act. In Iowa, where Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, state Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson are running for the open seat, which MS NOW rates as leaning Republican. Turek proposed removing the earnings cap on payroll taxes, while Hinson stated she opposes benefit cuts and supports a bipartisan commission.
Maine and Michigan Races
Maine’s incumbent Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in a race rated a toss-up. Collins suggested the payroll tax cap should be adjusted and proposed a commission of independent financial experts, while Jackson wants to raise the threshold, increase benefits, and opposes raising the retirement age. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are running in a toss-up race. El-Sayed called for eliminating the payroll tax cap and taxes on benefits, whereas Rogers supports a bipartisan committee solution, though past records show he previously supported raising the retirement age and private investment accounts.
Nebraska and New Hampshire Battles
Nebraska’s race features Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent candidate Dan Osborn, with MS NOW rating it as likely Republican. Ricketts signed a law to phase out state taxes on benefits as governor and introduced a similar federal measure. Osborn called for raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap to extend solvency. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu are competing in a race rated as leaning Democrat. Pappas stated high earners should pay their fair share and opposed benefit cuts, while Sununu defended past efforts to allow voluntary payroll tax diversion to individual investment accounts.
North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas Showdowns
North Carolina’s race between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley is rated as leaning Democrat, with both candidates emphasizing the preservation of benefits and bipartisan cooperation. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown and Sen. Jon Husted are competing in a special election rated as a toss-up. Brown supports raising the tax cap to make billionaires pay their fair share, and Husted supports genuine bipartisan solutions. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico are running in a race rated as a toss-up. Talarico wants to eliminate the Social Security tax cap for individuals earning over $400,000, while Paxton stated he aims to root out waste and protect the program.
