With less than a week remaining until the US midterm elections, which will decide control of Congress for the next two years, more than 43 million Americans have already cast their ballots.
Record-Breaking Turnout and Demographic Shifts
Data compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab shows that four to five million early votes are being cast daily, representing a much higher rate compared to most previous elections. Professor Mike McDonald, who oversees the database, states that Texas has recorded the highest above-average turnout rate so far. Overall participation appears on track to outpace 2020 and potentially 2018, which broke a 1914 record for overall turnout in a midterm election.
Texas has already exceeded its 2022 totals by approximately 1.75 million voters, with over 5.8 million ballots submitted in the state. Data from states that track political affiliations during primary elections shows an increase in participation among registered Democrats, while early ballots cast by Republican-affiliated voters remain largely consistent with 2022 levels. Participation has also risen among unaffiliated voters, though the data does not indicate their candidate preferences.
Figures from Thursday indicate that 44% of early ballots were cast by Democrats, 31.2% by Republicans, and 24.7% by voters with no party affiliation, though this applies only to states tracking affiliation. In North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, where voters must submit their race during registration, data reveals an increase in votes from Hispanic and Black communities, while white voter participation matches 2022 figures. Professor McDonald explains that communities of color frequently align with the Democratic coalition, whereas white voters more often align with the Republican coalition.
Border Counties and Voting Methods
Although Texas does not mandate party affiliation or race disclosures, statistics demonstrate a surge in voting across border counties with Mexico, which consist of over 90% Hispanic residents. Professor McDonald notes that several of these counties will surpass their entire 2022 turnout during the early voting period alone.
Early voting expanded significantly following the Covid-19 pandemic as additional states introduced mail-in and in-person early voting alternatives. During the 2020 election, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early, with half of those submitted by mail. Professor McDonald observes that voters increasingly favor in-person voting, even during the early voting window, and are returning their ballots earlier than in past election cycles.
Professor McDonald suggests this shift might stem from anxieties surrounding postal voting, noting that mail-in ballots carry a higher risk of disqualification due to errors and that some voters harbor concerns regarding interference with the US Postal Service, though definitive data on this trend is lacking. Official confirmation of record-breaking figures has already emerged, with Minneapolis announcing on Thursday that it established a new early voting record for a non-presidential election.
Early voting will soon conclude as states begin terminating the option in the days leading up to the election on Tuesday, November 3.
