A new report from the analytics firm Quilty Space reveals that the world outside of China is facing a substantial shortage of rockets over the next five years.
Launch Deficit and Military Demand
The analytics firm estimates a shortfall of approximately 150 launches between now and 2030, driven by demand from civil space agencies and satellite operators. When factoring in additional demand from the US military—assuming SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs to meet heightened national security requirements—this deficit could potentially double.
“What we wanted to get at is to understand how severe this launch crisis is and when will it be resolved,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space. “What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure, and it might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s.”
Contributing Factors and Market Outlook
The research points to several well-known catalysts behind the shortage, including the conflict in Ukraine removing Russian rockets from Western markets, increasing demand from Amazon’s Project Kuiper, and ongoing developmental delays affecting next-generation rockets such as New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R, and Nova. Additional pressure stems from the eventual retirement of the Falcon 9 as a commercial service vehicle.
While rocket supply diminishes, launch demand continues to surge from small satellite startups and megaconstellation operators like Amazon. The report indicates the crunch will peak in 2028 before beginning a slow recovery.
“How should people react and plan around this?” Henry asked. “To be honest, I don’t have a good answer. If you haven’t booked your launch already, and you need one, you’re late.”
