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Politicians across surrounding Arab nations have responded with muted reactions or silence as Israeli leaders attempt to form a coalition government following an inconclusive election. Analysts suggest foreign relations are unlikely to experience massive shifts, regardless of whether incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power or an opposition-led government takes a more moderate domestic approach.
Foreign Policy and Palestinian Territories
According to Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a potential government led by Netanyahu’s opponent Gadi Eisenkot would face political fragility that limits its maneuverability. While domestic changes might include halting a judicial overhaul and opening an inquiry into October 7th, foreign policy would largely remain consistent because Netanyahu’s post-October 7th security doctrine has been embraced across nearly all Jewish Israeli parties.
Regarding the Palestinian territories, experts note that support for statehood has collapsed across the Jewish political spectrum. Oppenheim stated that permanent Israeli control has become normalized and mainstream parties publicly oppose a Palestinian state on 1967 lines. While an Eisenkot-led administration might cooperate with left-wing parties and rely on Arab-led parties, Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group told the Associated Press that a new government could at best slow down the rapid acceleration of Israeli aggression in occupied territories.
Elizabeth Tsurkov of the Middle East Policy Council explained that a less extreme government might tone down religious messaging, ease conditions on disarming Hamas, advance the Gaza ceasefire agreed in late 2025, and suppress West Bank settler violence to protect Israel’s international reputation. However, settlements would continue to expand, Palestinian statehood would remain off-limits, and Saudi normalization would stay stalled without a diplomatic track for Palestinians.
Saudi Arabia and Syria Relations
Saudi Arabia’s conditions for normalization have hardened following the military campaign that left at least 70,000 Palestinians dead and Gaza devastated, with Riyadh insisting on progress toward Palestinian statehood. Despite co-signing a communique calling Israel a fundamental source of regional instability, analysts believe a less hardline Israeli government would make it easier for countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt to acknowledge ongoing backchannel diplomacy.
In Syria, a study by the Syrian think tank Etana detailed extensive Israeli military operations and territorial occupation in the southwest between January and September. Ksenia Svetlova of Chatham House told Syria in Transition that while Netanyahu’s administration avoided withdrawal to prevent appearing defeated, an anti-netanyahu bloc could make a security agreement more probable, though extreme right-wing opposition would create persistent challenges.
Lebanon Negotiations
Lebanese commentators and officials indicate a preference for Eisenkot’s bloc in power, anticipating smoother negotiations regarding the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah. This sentiment persists despite Eisenkot originating the “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” which employs asymmetric warfare to pressure militants and civilian populations.
Lebanese analysts also suggest that Eisenkot’s background as a former Israeli army commander could foster a working relationship with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, a former head of the Lebanese armed forces. A Lebanese official noted to L’Orient Today that when Netanyahu was previously ousted between 2021 and 2022, the two nations successfully negotiated and concluded a maritime border agreement.
