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Video assistant referee decisions have generally performed well in the Premier League this season, with the Key Match Incidents (KMI) Panel reporting only two mistakes after eight rounds of matches compared to six errors at the same stage last year. However, a recent weekend filled with controversial moments across almost every top-flight fixture prompted BBC Sport to assess the likelihood of the panel adding more errors to that tally.
Manchester United and Arsenal Incidents
During Manchester United’s 4-4 draw with Aston Villa, a 16th-minute penalty was awarded to United after Boubacar Kamara went through Matheus Cunha to win the ball, with replays showing initial contact on the Brazilian’s foot. BBC Sport reported that the KMI Panel is likely to judge this a correct decision. Later in the match, Patrick Dorgu scored a 96th-minute equaliser for United despite a possible foul by Senne Lammens on Villa goalkeeper Zion Suzuki. Given the higher bar for intervention in the league and minimal contact, the KMI Panel is unlikely to view the failure to disallow the goal as a VAR error.
In Arsenal’s 1-0 win against Hull, Kai Havertz was pulled down inside the area by Nobel Mendy. Although VAR Michael Oliver sent referee Farai Hallam to the pitchside monitor, the penalty was ultimately not given due to an offside offence by the German international. BBC Sport noted that because the foul occurred before any potential offside, the penalty should have been awarded, and the panel will likely rule this a mistake.
Leeds, Everton, and Brighton Matches
During Leeds’ 1-0 victory over Tottenham, Jayden Bogle fouled Mathys Tel. Referee John Brooks gave a free-kick but issued no sanction, and VAR Tony Harrington did not send Brooks to the monitor for a potential red card. The incident has split opinions among former players, meaning the KMI Panel’s verdict will depend on which ex-professionals sit on the panel.
Everton’s 3-1 win over Coventry featured three major incidents. In the first half, Coventry’s Caleb Yirenkyi appeared to have his hair pulled inside the area by James Tarkowski, which BBC Sport noted the KMI Panel will likely rule as an incorrect decision and a missed penalty. A second penalty claim for Coventry involving Vitalii Mykolenko clipping Taiwo Awoniyi was judged to have occurred just outside the line, making it a likely correct decision. Meanwhile, Thierno Barry scored for Everton in the 61st minute despite a VAR check for a potential handball; because the VAR lacks instant super-zoom capabilities, no intervention will likely be supported in a potential split vote.
In Brighton’s 2-0 win against Brentford, Igor Thiago received a red card following a VAR review after catching Chema Andres in the head with his forearm. Although the Brentford striker can feel unfortunate about intent, the KMI Panel is likely to support the VAR intervention because the laws dictate a strike to the head warrants a red card unless the force is negligible.
Crystal Palace, Chelsea, and Fulham Clashes
Crystal Palace were awarded a stoppage-time penalty in their 1-3 defeat by Liverpool following a foul by Milos Kerkez on Dario Osorio. BBC Sport stated this 50-50 clash may be voted an on-field error, but not to the threshold required for VAR intervention. During Chelsea’s 1-0 win at Sunderland, Cole Palmer went down on the edge of the area under challenges from Luke O’Nien and Jules Ahoka without a foul being given; the panel will likely support no penalty due to a lack of conclusive evidence that initial contact occurred inside the area.
In Fulham’s 1-1 draw with Newcastle, the visitors had a goal ruled out for a foul by Yoane Wissa on Timothy Castagne. BBC Sport indicated this is expected to be voted as a correct decision.
BBC Sport estimates that two decisions from the weekend are very likely to be logged as VAR errors—the missed penalties for Arsenal and Coventry—while two others, Barry’s goal and Bogle’s potential red card, depend on the subjective opinions of the panel members.
