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High pressure has taken charge of the UK weather pattern, bringing dry, settled, and chilly autumn conditions that are expected to persist throughout the week. Daytime hours will feature a combination of patchy cloud cover, sunny intervals, and scattered showers, while overnight conditions will bring frost and fog, particularly across northern and western regions.
October Climate Statistics
The quiet beginning to November comes after a varied October, with Met Office data indicating the month was wetter, warmer, and sunnier than typical averages. Provisional figures from the Met Office reveal that the UK recorded 13% more rainfall overall than a normal October. Every home nation experienced above-average precipitation, with northern Scotland seeing rainfall 31% above the long-term average.
The heaviest rainfall occurred during the final ten days of the month, driven by the arrival of Storm Austen and Storm Boelo. Data shows that 24 October provisionally marked the UK’s joint-sixth wettest single day on record. The Environment Agency reported that England endured its wettest week in two years, though it cautioned that the rainfall was insufficient to alleviate the ongoing drought. Sustained precipitation above seasonal averages throughout the winter months will be required to reverse the impact of the record-breaking hot summer.
October also featured notable sunshine, ranking as the fifth-sunniest October since record-keeping began in 1910 for the UK overall. Temperatures were similarly elevated, with overall mean temperatures sitting 0.9C above average. Shetland experienced a particularly warm month, recording its joint-sixth warmest October on record. This continued a streak that marked the UK’s ninth consecutive month of above-average temperatures.
Current Conditions and November Forecast
The jet stream responsible for guiding Storms Austen and Boelo toward the UK has shifted northward, allowing high pressure to establish itself and block major rain systems. This pattern is maintaining predominantly dry conditions across the country. However, with the high-pressure system centered over northern regions, a brisk easterly wind will impact southern and eastern areas, bringing coastal gusts of 30 to 40 mph alongside conditions in the Channel Islands.
This wind will produce a scattering of showers, most frequently affecting East Anglia and south-east England. Conversely, northern and western locations will remain largely dry as early morning fog clears to reveal patchy cloud cover and sunny intervals. Temperatures will peak between 11 and 13C, though wind-exposed areas will feel significantly colder.
Tuesday night will bring cooler conditions with temperatures generally dropping between 3 and 7C, while rural parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England could see readings dip below freezing alongside patches of frost. Fog is expected to form in these northern areas, whereas southern regions will remain too breezy for mist or fog development. This weather pattern will persist through the end of the week, characterized by widespread overnight frost and fog in the north alongside daytime sunshine and occasional showers, with temperatures falling by one or two degrees in many places.
Outlook for the Weekend and Beyond
Forecast models indicate that a relatively weak low-pressure system may drift northward from France over the weekend, raising the probability of patchy rainfall spreading across the UK. A drier interlude could follow early next week, but computer models suggest that high-pressure systems will eventually weaken, permitting Atlantic weather patterns to return.
Such a shift would introduce wetter and windier conditions, although significant uncertainty remains and current forecasts show no definite sign of upcoming storms.
