For nearly 25 years, Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell viewed the United States government as a primary source of opportunity. Overcoming heavy competition from established aerospace firms like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, SpaceX eventually secured lucrative contracts with NASA and the US military by delivering affordable, high-quality space products.
A Shifting Power Dynamic
As SpaceX won an increasing number of bids, the dynamic between the customer and the contractor began to shift. The company transformed from relying on the US government as an essential customer into becoming an indispensable contractor for the nation. Today, the pendulum has swung so far that SpaceX appears increasingly disinterested in the US government for most contracts, excluding data services like Starshield for military communications and observations.
Lori Garver, a former deputy NASA administrator under the Obama administration who helped expand commercial contracts with companies like SpaceX, expressed disbelief over the changing landscape. She stated that she still struggles to imagine a future where SpaceX stops flying the Dragon and Falcon rockets.
Signs of a Separation
Despite past partnerships, several key developments indicate a partial breakup between SpaceX and the government. SpaceX informed NASA that it will stop flying the Crew Dragon, the agency’s primary reliable astronaut transportation to the International Space Station, by or before 2030. In September, Shotwell suggested that NASA rely on Boeing for astronaut transportation instead, stating that they wanted to give Boeing some business because the government invested heavily in their capsule.
Furthermore, Ars Technica reported in October that SpaceX stopped selling commercial launches on its Falcon 9 rocket for missions scheduled after 2028. SpaceX might also halt Falcon 9 flights for NASA missions. During a late October meeting of NASA’s Safety Advisory Panel, Kent Rominger stated that if the US Deorbit Vehicle launches to the space station after 2030, it could require a rocket other than the Falcon 9.
Politico reported that SpaceX informed the US Space Force it will decline to bid on three upcoming launch contracts in the late 2020s that exceeded its current military commitments. Additionally, three sources revealed that SpaceX recently told companies building small landers for NASA’s Moon Base that it will no longer provide launch services for them, reversing its previous practice of supplying cost estimates.
