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Japan is closely monitoring potential shifts in Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy as leaders of the United States, China, and Russia prepare to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. The APEC gathering is scheduled for November 18-19 in the Chinese city of Shenzhen.
Concerns over US political shifts
Tokyo fears that the setbacks US President Donald Trump faced in the midterm elections may drive him to seek a quick diplomatic victory that overlooks the interests of regional allies. To gauge the mood in the White House following the November 3 midterm election, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris on Monday.
The Japanese Foreign Ministry stated that both officials agreed to advance security cooperation to strengthen deterrence and the Japan-US alliance. They also pledged to maintain close communication regarding the Indo-Pacific situation without providing further details.
Fears of a transactional approach
Sebastian Maslow, a politics professor at the University of Tokyo, stated that Japan worries Trump will use his presidential authorities to pivot toward foreign policy as a domestic lame duck. He told Deutsche Welle: “A US deal with China may provide President Xi [Jinping] the ability to intensify pressure on Japan.” Maslow added that strained Sino-Japanese relations will place Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in a difficult position regarding US-China relations.
Margarita Estévez-Abe, an associate professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, noted that Japan fears a transactional Trump treating Taiwan as a bargaining chip. She highlighted that Trump previously described US arms sales to Taiwan as a good negotiating chip after a May summit with Xi. Furthermore, Tokyo feels frustrated that the Trump administration treated China’s rare earth export restrictions following Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan as Tokyo’s problem rather than offering support.
Regional security and alliances
Japan also harbors concerns regarding Washington’s foreign policy stances toward North Korea and Russia. Estévez-Abe noted that while Trump has not damaged the US-Japan alliance to the extent of straining NATO, his outreach to Moscow and Pyongyang remains a source of worry for Tokyo.
Maslow explained that Japan’s security strategy relies on preserving the status quo and containing China’s role, with the US alliance serving as its cornerstone because Tokyo lacks an alternative plan. Over the past decade, Japan has diversified its security partnerships by enhancing defense cooperation with EU member states, NATO, Australia, and nations like the Philippines.
Estévez-Abe stated that Tokyo hopes no major regional clashes occur during the remainder of Trump’s term before a more strategically amenable administration takes over. However, Maslow emphasized that hope is insufficient, urging Tokyo to protect the alliance, increase defense spending, and safeguard economic security.
