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A coalition of leading UK horticultural organizations is developing an online resource to help gardeners select plants capable of surviving future climate conditions. The Garden Climate Assessment Tool (GCAT) will allow users to input specific locations and plant lists to receive risk assessments based on factors like dryness, winter cold, and average annual temperatures.
Predicting Future Growing Conditions
The project is led by the Future National Gardens Group (FNGG), which includes the Royal Horticultural Society (RHS), the National Trust, English Heritage, and the Royal Botanic Gardens. According to Professor Sam Brockington, a curator at Cambridge University Botanic Garden, the tool is necessary because traditional gardening knowledge is becoming less reliable. “In the 20th century, we could pretty much grow the same things with confidence, we could learn from previous generations,” Brockington said. “But now we’re moving into climate scenarios that we just don’t have the traditions to understand fully.”
The tool aims to help gardeners proactively manage the impacts of the climate crisis rather than reacting to them after damage occurs. It will identify plants currently struggling in the UK, allowing for their gradual removal from collections. The system currently contains data on up to 80,650 plant types and information from 289 UK gardens, with plans for continuous updates to improve predictive accuracy.
Industry Feedback and Future Implementation
Professional gardeners began trialing the tool this week to provide feedback. While a formal release date remains unconfirmed, Alistair Griffiths, the RHS director of science, stated that the long-term goal is to make the resource available to the general public. The GCAT builds upon a similar model launched in Australia in 2022, which focused exclusively on trees.
Garden designers and experts have noted that the tool addresses a growing need for specific, localized advice. Laura Carey of Carey Garden Design Studio noted that designers are currently struggling to select trees that can withstand erratic weather. She explained that the tool’s ability to account for weather variability, rather than just rising temperatures, would assist in making more sustainable, long-term planting decisions.
Clive Boase of the charity Climate Change Gardening suggested the tool could help gardeners move away from water-intensive “English garden” staples, such as lush lawns, hydrangeas, and delphiniums, which are increasingly difficult to maintain in drier regions like the east of England. “People are embedded in a sort of cultural aesthetic,” Boase said. “And if you say, to be honest, that’s not going to work going forward, then that’s a bit of a wrench for them. They have to be supported in making those changes.”
Refining the Tool for Local Needs
While the tool is seen as a significant step forward, some experts have pointed out limitations. Currently, the software does not account for soil type, a factor that Kim Shrosbree of the Epsom Garden Society believes is critical. Shrosbree noted that gardeners on chalk or clay face vastly different challenges, and a plant suitable for a general region might fail depending on the specific ground conditions.
Garden designer Juliet Sargeant emphasized that the tool’s focus on location is essential for modern gardening. “Everybody really needs to think more about individual plants and your own garden your own location,” she said. “I think in the past we’ve been able to get away with quite generic advice. But now things are going to depend very much on your own garden.”
