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Governments and businesses across the Asia-Pacific region are closely watching Tuesday’s US midterm elections as they continue to deal with the energy shock stemming from the war on Iran involving the United States and Israel. While many regional observers hope for significant changes regarding the conflict, trade policies, and tariffs during the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term, analysts note that few expect major shifts, even if Democrats take control of the House of Representatives or the Senate.
Energy Shocks and the War on Iran
According to trade specialist Steven Okun, chief executive of the Singapore-based consulting firm APAC Advisors, everyone in the region is watching the elections as great political theatre. Outside the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific has absorbed the heaviest blow from the war on Iran, having previously relied on Gulf oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict’s start in January. The subsequent closure of this chokepoint by Iran resulted in severe regional shortages.
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in March due to its heavy reliance on the Gulf for over 90 percent of crude oil imports. The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore reported that surging fuel expenses depleted foreign exchange reserves in poorer economies such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timor, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam directed substantial funds toward fuel subsidies to protect consumers.
Although public opinion in the Asia-Pacific strongly opposes the war, Okun told Al Jazeera that a Democratic-controlled US Congress is unlikely to compel Trump to end the eight-month conflict. He stated that oversight hearings and investigations would likely occur, alongside a potential impeachment of the defence secretary, but the overall impact of the war would remain unchanged.
While the US Constitution grants Congress the power to declare war, Trump defended the strikes as acts of self-defence and bypassed congressional resolutions demanding the withdrawal of US forces. Should a Democratic-led Congress pass legislation to restrict or defund military operations, Trump holds veto power, and Democrats lack the two-thirds majority in both chambers required to override it.
Stance on Tariffs and Trade Policy
Analysts similarly see minimal opportunity for Congress to alter Trump’s trade and tariff agenda. Global markets were shaken last year when reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent were imposed on roughly 90 countries to reduce the US trade deficit, disproportionately affecting Asia. Nations facing high rates included Cambodia at 49 percent, Laos at 48 percent, Vietnam at 46 percent, and Myanmar at 45 percent.
After the Supreme Court invalidated those tariffs in February, the administration shifted tactics, implementing tariffs of 10 percent and 12.5 percent in July on 60 trading partners accused of failing to block imports made with forced labour. Affected Asian nations include China, Japan, South Korea, and seven Southeast Asian countries comprising Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Okun emphasized that the new Congress will not impact trade policy or change tariffs.
Conversely, Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, suggested in a recent essay that a strong voter rebuke of Trumpism could encourage a pro-free-trade Republican faction that has previously remained quiet. Olson noted this provides a small measure of hope for Southeast Asian nations reliant on the US market, adding that a Democratic-controlled Congress might pursue carve-outs and exceptions to offer exporters some relief, though fundamental trade policy shifts must wait until the 2028 presidential election.
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera that the region seeks broader security changes alongside trade stability. He noted that Asia desires reliable US security guarantees and a visible US presence in the South China Sea, where Beijing’s claims overlap with five Southeast Asian nations, as well as the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, businesses will monitor whether Republican losses prompt greater willingness from the GOP to collaborate with Democrats on issues affecting Asian companies, such as tariffs, trade policy, arms sales, and broader economic unpredictability.
Future of US-China Relations and Technology Controls
Analysts anticipate potential changes specifically within US policy concerning Chinese technology. Okun indicated that the incoming Congress will enact stricter limitations on China regardless of party control.
Anticipated legislation includes the Remote Access Security Act to extend export controls to remote access of US goods, software, or technology; the Chip Security Act to mandate verification that advanced artificial intelligence chips remain in authorized locations; and the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, or MATCH Act, designed to pressure allies into aligning chipmaking equipment controls with Washington to restrict China’s access.
Okun explained that both parties agree on these measures, noting that the US president currently exhibits the least restrictive stance on China due to ongoing diplomatic engagements with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders have met twice this year amid improving relations following last year’s trade war, and Trump has delayed approving a $14bn arms sales package to Taiwan—which would be Taipei’s largest ever—to protect the fragile trade truce.
Meanwhile, James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University, cautioned that a lame-duck Trump constrained domestically by a Democratic Congress might pivot more aggressively toward foreign policy, warning that continued erratic foreign policy should be anticipated. Guild added that Democrats historically hold a weak record of effectively holding Trump accountable through conventional congressional oversight, leaving observers waiting to see how they respond this time.
