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Disagreements between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over forming a new government have raised the threat of two rival administrations emerging in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region, analysts say.
Historical Divisions and Recent Elections
The dispute between the two dominant political forces in the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government escalated after a parliamentary session was held in Erbil without the participation of the PUK. PUK leader Bafel Talabani responded by withdrawing his party from the government, growing fears that a rival administration could be established in the party’s base of Sulaimaniyah.
Independent Kurdish politician Yasin Aziz told Al Jazeera that these developments have deepened historical divisions between the two groups. He noted that while hopes existed for an agreement, activating parliament without the PUK worsened the rift.
The KDP, led by Massoud Barzani, holds its strongholds in Erbil and Dohuk, while the PUK maintains its base in Sulaimaniyah. During regional parliamentary elections on October 20, 2024, the KDP secured 39 seats and the PUK won 23, leaving a 16-seat gap. Because the KDP needed an agreement with other factions, including the New Generation Movement which won 15 seats, but faced refusal from the PUK, the party ultimately reactivated parliament without its rival after a two-year wait.
Political Impasse and Responses
Aziz argued that the current crisis is more deeply rooted than past disputes and criticized both party leaderships for failing to recognize the risks. Subhi Mandalawi, a KDP member, blamed the PUK for the impasse, telling Al Jazeera that the PUK had delayed government formation counting on the KDP failing to secure a legal quorum.
Mandalawi maintained that the door remains open for the PUK, though he warned that prolonged divisions damage the region domestically and internationally. He dismissed threats of division as unrealistic, stating that the PUK would be the primary loser and assuring that armed conflict between the groups will not return.
Conversely, senior PUK official Mahmood Khoshnaw warned that convening parliament without his party abandons partnership principles and will bring consequences, stating that if a prime minister is appointed in Erbil, the PUK will take identical steps in Sulaimaniyah.
Legal and Constitutional Questions
Regarding the legality of a separation, Ramadan Albadran, an independent political analyst and constitutional affairs expert, stated that the conflict is a deep political crisis rather than a constitutional issue over parliament’s convening. He noted that the Iraqi constitution provides no mechanism to divide the region into zones of influence.
Albadran explained that any move by the PUK to separate Sulaimaniyah without a mandate from the elected regional government would lack constitutional backing and resemble an act of rebellion, as no legal provision permits dismantling a region in that manner.
